How break ourselves up into teams to accomplish the goal? Need to have plan by 24 JAN 07.
Contribute ideas (team meetings, etc.)

National Geographic: The Genographic Project (really cool)
$100 to trace DNA to origin
Relevance to class: interesting to consider possibility of attacking specific genetic groups with susceptibilities/vulnerabilities
example: African American vulnerability to sickle cell anemia

Heuristics ("rules of thumb") and Bias

  • Attentional bias (monkey/basketball video)
  • Often "we" read a bunch of stuff and determine what we see before we actually see it?

Huntington and "Clash of Civilizations" 1993 (Balkans conflict was raging)

  • Bias: religious divisions of... civilizations united by religion, language, etc.
* "Conflict fundamentally runs along cultural lines" (paraphrase)
  • A heuristic: a model of the way the world works
  • Serbian/Bosnian conflict was happening -- he drew line down Europe and the division between Catholic and Orthodox Christianity
  • Huntington is HUGE in polisci -- everyone is either for or against everything he writes
  • When he wrote this, people drew conclusion that the Balkans conflict was inevitable
  • Criticisms: economic alliances play into things, divisions within civilizations, civilization definitions are suspect, etc.

Implications For Us and NIE

  • Anticipate holes
  • Globalization
  • When walkin' the analytic line -- that's when we're doing something interesting. If everyone agrees, probably a weak, watery, obvious point. If something is good, it will be praised and criticized severly -- welcome it.
  • Our NIE may not see light of day -- but might.

Pentagon's New Map by Thomas P.M. Barnett

  • Functioning core
  • Non-integrating
  • Influenced a lot of US foreign policy over last several years
  • Perspective on how decision makers see world has implications for us -- we have to take into account their intellectual perspective

Regional Key Findings

  • Can be several pages
  • Think broadly
  • Include lynch pins and drivers
  • Show nuance and depth of research and analysis through specifics
  • Don't write about the obvious
  • Go back and look at the columns, use the averages and numbers
  • Alcoholism, obesity --

About This Document

  • Define terminology (minimal, marginal, moderate, significant, severe)
  • Chart: bring up that we need to put the definitions (a key) on the charts with linked defs.
  • Give guidelines to people who will be reading this and have no idea what we're talking about with reference to defs.

To Do

  • Draft country estimates by 19 JAN 07.
  • Draft regional estimates by 26 JAN 07.
  • Disease reports by 30 JAN 07.
  • Draft versions of final product by 06 FEB 07.
  • Capturing
  • Presenting
  • Producing: slides, etc.