Under Resources: Wheaton posted 2006 Congressional Budget Justification
Designates amount of money each country gets from US -- prioritizes US strategic interests

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Sourcing

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ACH/SACH: Start with simple question

1. Is there disease threat or not?
2. Chronic or infectious?
3. Can health care system handle it?

One of the best ways to think about things is through a structured method.
Tetlock's book----
Structured Method facilitates forecasting capability.
When used properly, justifies and leads to nuanced estimates quickly.
Good collaboration tool.
Don't have to keep collecting.

ACH

H1 Stable
H2 Unstable
E1
C
I
E2
C
C
E3
C
I
E4
C
I
After determing btwn H1 and H2, break down the winner into causal factors.

SACH
H1 Unstable -- Leadership
H2 Unstable -- Econ.
H3 Unstable -- Foreign Aid
E1
na
C
I
E2
C
na
na
E3
C
I
I
Keep going.... till determine answer.

Issues with SACH:
What if evidence doesn't speak to hypotheses? Collect more info. -- focuses collection effort cause know what looking for...
Subjectivity is major issue -- deception (under-reporting, etc.) is out there -- and will likely be inconsistent with other information.
Look at weight of evidence -- the degree of inconsistency (determines whether likely or highly likely...)

**Programs on lab PCs "ACH" or www.squidoo.com/intelligence, intelligence tools, Park ACH 2.0.3 -- Free download.

To Do:

Familiarize self with 2006 Congressional Budget Justification -- my countries.
Download ACH software