Draft Terms Of Reference: perspective of whole class team
Link to bottom of Draft Terms Of Reference Page (I also linked under CCA page)
*If can't speak with Ray Lester -- identify another stake holder.

Another Stakeholder mentioned:

Pharm. research
NGOs -- local ones, in particular
Animal Diseases
Must specify natural security implications to warrant mention

Extracting Info From Stakeholders

Have Questions Prepared: Set tone with good opening question.
Good first question: If this was your tasking, what would it entail? What would your idea of a perfect NIE contain?
Use ambiguous words to expound on expectations: What do you mean by disease? Best? Parse it.
Extract Priorities: Parrot their words to them and force a prioritized order.

Case Studies

Marketing, Business, Law, etc.
Can't replicate
Not a double blind
Significant
Testable

How make Case Study Methodology more reputable?
Compare similar case studies (similar subjects, similar approaches, similar results, etc)
Good for thesis -- see if multiple cases yield same results -- yield LEADS
Social Scientists use -- we can us to develop:
1. Leads: conceptual, where to go for research
2. Heuristics: rules of thumb

Minimum Winning Coalitions: With mulitple parties, the winning party will likely have just over 50% vote.

Yugo NIE

"Nobody cares about Yugo"
US was invading Kuwait (Desert Storm) -- because Sadaam had invaded Iraq -- kicking them outta Kuwait
US wasn't intent on keeping Yugo together
USSR had lost influence
Analysts used "mirror imaging" to their detriment -- assumed "they" (the Yugoslavians) would do what we would do (stay together for economic reasons and tolerate the ethinic/religious differences)
Surprising how few people are actually in on the process -- fyi: there's not a lot of training in the govt./no community structure

Swedes and Germans incurred refugees
US spent USD5 billion on intelligence

Butterfly Effect

(aka Chaos Theory aka Complexity Theory)
Any system that iterates, end of one cycle becomes beginning of next cycle -- ramification of events on next event
System is extremely sensitive to changes -- possibly not immediately, but eventually
Some events will cancel each other out
Robust Systems (health care, political) are effected
Though no logical relationship may exist between the initial cause and long-term effect, still related
Therefore, cannot project many possible effects because wouldn't seem logical at this point

Implications for NIE

Cannot work/write/analyze from the assumption that policymakers can't or won't "do something" -- erodes analytic confidence and impact
Do not assume infectious diseases and their effects are unstoppable forces
Do not adopt pessimistic (or overly optimistic) stance that will overly influence policymakers

Catastrophy -- book about the impact of unlikely but possible occurrences
NO CLASS Friday