First Geographical Team meeting: 13 DEC 06

Sourcing

We have free range of sources/sourcing.
Be explicit when sourcing.*

Wheaton has created blog for extra info/sources.

TOR -- Reference Info on Blackboard.

"Strategic"

Plan
Objective
Large-Scale
Long-Term

Common Denom:
Level of commitment
Allocation of resources -- how many resources of decision maker are risked

Strategy Document:
Useless if too general

2002 Nat. Security Strategy

Human Rights element stands out as displaced when first -- given the proximity
How speaks to IC? Tasks are implied throughout document but doc is not directed at IC as audience

Strategic Intelligence: Intelligence that supports "this" strategy
Section VII: Emphasize Education -- links education and infectious disease
Wiki will support Nat. Sec. Strat. of US here

Certain countries are specifically named:
Indonesia, Kenya, Ethiopia, etc. -- all non-middle east oil countries and NATO countries
Moderate and Modern governments --

National Intelligence Strategy of the United States of America:

Read for Tactical Advantage (To support allocation of resources in future.)

Subordinate to National Security Strategy -- explicit in document
Focus is on this document

Estimates and Influence

3 Peaks of Estimation for Analyst (notes are in class notebook)
1. Sharp
2. Truncated
3. Self-Censored

Reactions
1. "Knew it all along..."
*Make sure estimates are detailed, nuanced and robust to deal with 1. assertion.

2. Will attack because doesn't support their policy, budget, etc.
*Backed up by evidence.

3. Irrelevant (OCE -- "Overcome by Events)
*Don't write them in the first place.

WMD NIE on Iraq


Handouts:

1. "Sifting The Intelligence From The Politics"
2. "Declassified Key Judgements of the National Intelligence Estimate"

To Do:

Contact Ray Lester -- set up meeting for this week
Read 1990 Yugo NIE
NIE on Trends and Terrorists... (didn't catch title: will be on Blackboard)
Look for:
  • Key Judgements
  • Common problems along NIEs
  • How translate "good" to wiki format --
  • How avoid "bad" -- how do we police ourselves?