Estimates

  • Be ever-conscious of titles -- not writing journalistic headlines to "catch" reader.
  • Use the Congressional Budget Justification for all estimates and it will aid in identifying strategic implications and regional patterns - provides regional data.
  • CBJ outlines US strategy for almost all countries -- not the "richer" ones though.
    • (Lance Ramsey: providing a breakdown chart of the Cong. Budget Just.)
    • Nat. Security Strategy.
    • US Embassy webpages
    • NATO

Byzantines

335 - 14th century (over a 1,000 years) The Eastern Roman Empire -- spoke GREEK
  • Byzantium/Constantinople was "the city" -- the "polis"
  • Art, economny, military prowess
  • Venetians looted Constantinople in 1204
  • Turks took over with Ottoman Empire
  • Western tradition of strategic thinking didn't begin with Machiavelli -- it began way earlier with the Byzantines
  • Emperor Maurice wrote the Strategikon -- Not written for everyone but for generals, etc. -Lie to your troops, use deception to bolster courage (healthy POWs, hide -- ragged POWs, parade them in front of troops)
  • God and religion: The Byzantines believed they were the best there was and that God was on their side because they thrived
  • Byzantines originated the "country study" since the empire was surrounded by various cultures and they had to fight different people in different ways -- anthropoligical way of adapting warfare


Machiavelli

  • Birth of political science -- not about war -- about politics, leadership, management of the state
  • Mach wrote it because he wanted a job as an advisor to the Medicies (?) but didn't elaborate on running spy networks because wanted to maintain his advantage -- (hire me and I'll tell you) -- dramatically lacking in that it doesn't address the use of spies in an environ that was riddled with them
  • He was very religious, living in Italian city-states: cut-throat, contentious environment
  • Chapter IV: Turks and French *(Mach missed the middle ground)*
>
** Turkish ruler is the center with subserviant rulers
    • French: barons in power because of heredity
  • >>
    • Network Centric Warfare "NetWar" -- how take down a network, centralized and de-centralized networks
    • Barabossi -- there's a middle ground (like the Internet or how neurons connect in the brain) where there is some but not total centrality. Computers have aided in this study.
  • >>
      • Complex Theory
      • Chaos Theory
      • Fractals
  • Power Law Distribution: there are a lot of little points with few connections but few points with lots of connections
>
** characterizes the Internet, earthquakes, war
    • Power Law is the science of the 21st century
      • Can illustrate the network and provide a picture of the network and how to attack
  • >> >>>
    • War casualties: lots of little wars all the time, constantly, but few the size and effect of WWII, etc.
    • Centralized: High Efficiency, Low Robustness
      • If identify the network, tells how to attack it. If centralized, then must attack and take out central node before can regroup. This network has high information flow.
  • >> >>>
    • Decentralized: Low Effciency, High Robustness
      • Info doesn't flow as well. Will be harder to take out, but will also be slower to bounce back.
  • >> >>>
    • *There is a third, middle-tier network.*
  • >>

**Airports, ports, good thought toward NIE and disease.

3 Handouts

1. "Can We Get Ourselves Out Of The Mess We've Made?"
2. "Republic Or Empire"
3. "The World Distribution Of Household Wealth"